Excellent analysis! Thanks! I would just add 1 very important point about Jonathan Weisman's NYT piece: he tendentiously blames inflation on Biden's American Rescue Plan. But as has been noted over and over, there was the same kind of inflation in every advanced country in the world at the same time. Krugman did a piece that explains this just today: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bothsidesing-with-a-republican-slant.
A country-specific explanation is thus ruled out and Weisman's credibility called into question.
Good analysis, but I think you avoided one key point. Some people are just racist. It's not about economics for them, it's about them wanting to feel superior. Sad, but true.
The white no-college folk are motivated by bigotry (namely sexism and racism) more than anything else, and there is no way to win these people back if you are a woman or a person of color running as a Democrat:
But Democrats are not going to abandon Black people and many Blacks themselves are turning away from electoral politics altogether, based on the vastly lower turnout in inner city Philadelphia and Atlanta. If Democrats are not going to play White dog whistles, then all they have is that the Republican coalition will just collapse based on their shorter life expectancy.
That may come sooner than expected, but even so we're going to need to run a white male in 2028 to have a chance unless Trump destroys the economy so badly that most Republicans stay home rather than vote for Vance.
Thank you for this thoughtful and incisive analysis. I was deeply unsatisfied with Weisman’s piece as well. You shed important light on the racial and cultural dynamics driving the working-class realignment away from the Democratic Party. Your argument is compelling, particularly in emphasizing the enduring role of racial resentment and cultural populism in shaping voter behavior.
One area where the critique could be even stronger is by more directly addressing the influence of the right-wing media ecosystem. While you touch on themes like racialized narratives and cultural grievances, these have – as you are most certainly well aware – been significantly amplified and entrenched by decades of disinformation and sensationalism from outlets like Fox News, talk radio, and social media platforms. Exploring how this media ecosystem reinforces and perpetuates these dynamics could provide additional depth to the analysis and further clarify why economic achievements alone have failed to shift perceptions among the working class.
I deeply appreciate the nuance in your work and look forward to your continued insights.
Every time I read an analysis of the Ds erosion of working-class support that doesn't talk a lot about race, I think of LBJ's quote: “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.”
I turn 70 on my next birthday. If I’ve learned anything in this vale of tears, it is to never underestimate the emotional insecurity of straight white males. This isn’t about race or gender or sexuality. It’s because we’re on top, like it there, and know deep down that we don’t deserve this status any more than anyone else would. So when Black people or women or gay people or anyone else want the same deal as we have—and even inch closer to it—we’re threatened. There is little that the invulnerable fear more than the vulnerable.
I will go to my death proud to be a member of a party that, however in fits and starts and at times ineptly, stood for the idea that we’re all the same and that if one person isn’t free, no one is.
3 observations: Race may play a greater role in certain elections than in others (Pres. as compared to state and local). Plus, reducing working-class voting shifts to just racial factors overlooks economic issues: stagnant wages, healthcare costs, job losses, and corporate consolidation. Oversimplification alienates potential allies and prevents Democrats from legitimate economic grievances that cross racial, if not regional lines. Finally, good points on how D's have been losing working-class voters. Forgive me for citing myself.https://ralphrosenberg.substack.com/p/words-of-insight-from-another-harris?r=9e9e3
Seth is certainly correct in naming race as the missing link in the analysis. If he added gender identity to the mix it would be even more correct.
Heather McGhee's book, The Sum of Us, explains the dynamic nicely, and the LBJ quote noted in another comment here is the tldr for the book.
There's very good and important research demonstrating that if you only talk about economics in a campaign you will always fail to overcome the regressive-right's dog-whistles and scapegoating.
You have to talk about economics AND race and now also gender to push aside the dog-whistles and scapegoats.
McGhee along with Professor Ian Haney López and Anat Shenker-Osorio developed the race-class-gender narrative as a methodology for doing this successfully.
Today a coalition of people and groups under the Freedom Over Fascism moniker operationalize this narrative and distribute it in the Freedom Over Fascism toolkit, https://bit.ly/FreedomOverFascism.
Please grab a copy and use it in your political and quasi-political conversations and communications.
True or not, that was the perception of the public. The Democrats did a poor job of messaging on the economy. Talking about jobs doesn't do much when most people had jobs before Covid and after. Reducing inflation doesn't get much praise when people blame you for inflation in the first place. High prices remained after inflation eased, and were something people saw on a daily basis. Trump had large deficits before Covid, and the greatest one-year deficit in US history his last year in office. Did the Dems point that out? No. Trump also arranged to limit oil production and supply by the world's major oil producers, by an agreement that lasted into 2022 when the world's economy was recovering from Covid and demand increased. That had to be a significant factor in inflation. Did the Dems point that out? No, and neither did the media. The Republicans, however, hammered the Dems over high prices in my battle ground state, and I don't know why the Democrats did not respond with an attack on Trump over his contribution.
I tried to like Weisman's peice but it just came off as leftist coping to blame the only Democratic presidents that have won reelection in my lifetime for the parties current woes.
People really liked Clinton and Obama. Clinton's crime bill and welfare work requirements were popular at the time. Obama's tough on illegal immigration stance countered fox narratives. Progressives need to read 5k words from Weisman to forget that a lot of their policies are just not that popular.
My personal poltics are to the left the average American but I want to win. And for that I think we need more Clinton's, not less.
Yes Derek, it's preposterous to think that the actions of Democrats when they were in power might have something to do with their current electoral difficulties, good point
Excellent analysis! Thanks! I would just add 1 very important point about Jonathan Weisman's NYT piece: he tendentiously blames inflation on Biden's American Rescue Plan. But as has been noted over and over, there was the same kind of inflation in every advanced country in the world at the same time. Krugman did a piece that explains this just today: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bothsidesing-with-a-republican-slant.
A country-specific explanation is thus ruled out and Weisman's credibility called into question.
I took that as just a Republican consultant blaming the ARP, not stating it as empirical fact. But it was a weird note to end the piece on.
Good analysis, but I think you avoided one key point. Some people are just racist. It's not about economics for them, it's about them wanting to feel superior. Sad, but true.
The whole piece is about how racism toward Blacks has driven much of the party change over the past 50 years.
Lol did you not read the piece?
Exactly.
The white no-college folk are motivated by bigotry (namely sexism and racism) more than anything else, and there is no way to win these people back if you are a woman or a person of color running as a Democrat:
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/sanders-biden-michigan-sexism/
But Democrats are not going to abandon Black people and many Blacks themselves are turning away from electoral politics altogether, based on the vastly lower turnout in inner city Philadelphia and Atlanta. If Democrats are not going to play White dog whistles, then all they have is that the Republican coalition will just collapse based on their shorter life expectancy.
That may come sooner than expected, but even so we're going to need to run a white male in 2028 to have a chance unless Trump destroys the economy so badly that most Republicans stay home rather than vote for Vance.
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/sanders-biden-michigan-sexism/
Yeah we need someone like Biden
Thank you for this thoughtful and incisive analysis. I was deeply unsatisfied with Weisman’s piece as well. You shed important light on the racial and cultural dynamics driving the working-class realignment away from the Democratic Party. Your argument is compelling, particularly in emphasizing the enduring role of racial resentment and cultural populism in shaping voter behavior.
One area where the critique could be even stronger is by more directly addressing the influence of the right-wing media ecosystem. While you touch on themes like racialized narratives and cultural grievances, these have – as you are most certainly well aware – been significantly amplified and entrenched by decades of disinformation and sensationalism from outlets like Fox News, talk radio, and social media platforms. Exploring how this media ecosystem reinforces and perpetuates these dynamics could provide additional depth to the analysis and further clarify why economic achievements alone have failed to shift perceptions among the working class.
I deeply appreciate the nuance in your work and look forward to your continued insights.
Very well said. I was gonna write something to this effect, but saw this and Darrin was on it. So, yea, what he said 😎
Every time I read an analysis of the Ds erosion of working-class support that doesn't talk a lot about race, I think of LBJ's quote: “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.”
Relatedly, I saw an interesting voting-pattern analysis for 2024 compared to earlier years, from Michael Podhorzer (H/t Simon Rosenberg). Here's the link , in case you want to read it: https://substack.com/home/post/p-154092448?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I turn 70 on my next birthday. If I’ve learned anything in this vale of tears, it is to never underestimate the emotional insecurity of straight white males. This isn’t about race or gender or sexuality. It’s because we’re on top, like it there, and know deep down that we don’t deserve this status any more than anyone else would. So when Black people or women or gay people or anyone else want the same deal as we have—and even inch closer to it—we’re threatened. There is little that the invulnerable fear more than the vulnerable.
I will go to my death proud to be a member of a party that, however in fits and starts and at times ineptly, stood for the idea that we’re all the same and that if one person isn’t free, no one is.
3 observations: Race may play a greater role in certain elections than in others (Pres. as compared to state and local). Plus, reducing working-class voting shifts to just racial factors overlooks economic issues: stagnant wages, healthcare costs, job losses, and corporate consolidation. Oversimplification alienates potential allies and prevents Democrats from legitimate economic grievances that cross racial, if not regional lines. Finally, good points on how D's have been losing working-class voters. Forgive me for citing myself.https://ralphrosenberg.substack.com/p/words-of-insight-from-another-harris?r=9e9e3
Seth is certainly correct in naming race as the missing link in the analysis. If he added gender identity to the mix it would be even more correct.
Heather McGhee's book, The Sum of Us, explains the dynamic nicely, and the LBJ quote noted in another comment here is the tldr for the book.
There's very good and important research demonstrating that if you only talk about economics in a campaign you will always fail to overcome the regressive-right's dog-whistles and scapegoating.
You have to talk about economics AND race and now also gender to push aside the dog-whistles and scapegoats.
McGhee along with Professor Ian Haney López and Anat Shenker-Osorio developed the race-class-gender narrative as a methodology for doing this successfully.
Today a coalition of people and groups under the Freedom Over Fascism moniker operationalize this narrative and distribute it in the Freedom Over Fascism toolkit, https://bit.ly/FreedomOverFascism.
Please grab a copy and use it in your political and quasi-political conversations and communications.
Good piece
True or not, that was the perception of the public. The Democrats did a poor job of messaging on the economy. Talking about jobs doesn't do much when most people had jobs before Covid and after. Reducing inflation doesn't get much praise when people blame you for inflation in the first place. High prices remained after inflation eased, and were something people saw on a daily basis. Trump had large deficits before Covid, and the greatest one-year deficit in US history his last year in office. Did the Dems point that out? No. Trump also arranged to limit oil production and supply by the world's major oil producers, by an agreement that lasted into 2022 when the world's economy was recovering from Covid and demand increased. That had to be a significant factor in inflation. Did the Dems point that out? No, and neither did the media. The Republicans, however, hammered the Dems over high prices in my battle ground state, and I don't know why the Democrats did not respond with an attack on Trump over his contribution.
I tried to like Weisman's peice but it just came off as leftist coping to blame the only Democratic presidents that have won reelection in my lifetime for the parties current woes.
People really liked Clinton and Obama. Clinton's crime bill and welfare work requirements were popular at the time. Obama's tough on illegal immigration stance countered fox narratives. Progressives need to read 5k words from Weisman to forget that a lot of their policies are just not that popular.
My personal poltics are to the left the average American but I want to win. And for that I think we need more Clinton's, not less.
Yes Derek, it's preposterous to think that the actions of Democrats when they were in power might have something to do with their current electoral difficulties, good point