What the DeSantis memo reveals

A sane analysis of a crazy environment

A lot of folks are clowning on the leaked debate strategy memo from a firm linked to a DeSantis-tied super PAC. And yes, there are some clownworthy aspects. But there are a number of interesting things in there that are revealing about the state of the Republican presidential contest and the options available to candidates not named Trump.

First of all, the way this memo came to light is kind of great. As the New York Times reported:

The documents were posted this week on the website of Axiom Strategies, the company owned by Jeff Roe, the chief strategist of Mr. DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down.

The New York Times was alerted to the existence of the documents by a person not connected to the DeSantis campaign or the super PAC. After The Times reached out to Never Back Down for comment on Thursday, the group removed from the website a key memo summarizing the suggested strategy for the debate. By Thursday night, all the other documents that were posted had been taken down.

Yes, this is one of those great workarounds for super PACs. They can’t coordinate with the campaign, but there’s nothing wrong with posting stuff on-line and the campaign just kind of “finding” it. Unless other people find it first.

But what of the contents? Most notably, the memo advises DeSantis, the only candidate pulling double-digit support against Trump all year and whom Trump has been constantly berating, to not go after Trump. Indeed, it advises him to defend Trump when attacked:

The debate-prep memo also urges Mr. DeSantis to “defend Trump when Chris Christie attacks him,” with a specific suggestion for an attack line accusing Mr. Christie, the former New Jersey governor, of appealing mainly to Democrats: “Trump isn’t here, so let’s just leave him alone. He’s too weak to defend himself here. We’re all running against him. I don’t think we want to join forces with someone on this stage who’s auditioning for a show on MSNBC.”

It advises DeSantis to describe Trump as “a breath of fresh air and the first president to tell the elite where to shove it,” but also someone who has (fairly or unfairly) been besieged by the media and the legal system. DeSantis would then offer himself up as someone free to fight for people and not encumbered by various burdens.

Meanwhile, the memo advises DeSantis to go after Vivek Ramaswamy, who’s been enjoying a bit of a surge in the early-contest states, depicting him as “fake.” It suggests DeSantis do some fairly loud dog-whistling, saying Ramaswamy is out of touch with conservative policy stances because of his Hindu upbringing.

Let’s just take this memo at face value for now, under the assumption that it’s offering sincere advice to DeSantis based on some reasonable polling analysis and that DeSantis’ team is taking it seriously (although perhaps pivoting a bit now that it’s public).

One one level, advising the #2 candidate to defend #1 while going after #3 is kind of nuts. It’s 2016 all over again, where candidates rarely attack Trump, instead shivving each other for the chance to be the person who is running against Trump, and Trump wins handily. It’s as though Barack Obama prepped for the first Democratic debate in 2007 by defending Hillary Clinton while viciously ripping into Chris Dodd.¹ That’s not how to become the nominee.

On the other hand, this is not a typical contest. Trump has been over 50 percent in polls for months, despite (and even partially because of) four sets of criminal indictments against him. DeSantis’ numbers have dropped from the twenties into the teens, and no one else is above ten. Trump has three-quarters of all the endorsement points by FiveThirtyEight’s tabulation. His numbers are not soft, and if there’s an argument against him that will move Republican voters, suffice it to say that no one has yet found it.

In other words, DeSantis and his allies do not see a way to take down Trump in a debate, and they view any attempt to do that as a suicide run. This is a sane analysis of a crazy environment. So why is DeSantis running in a contest he knows he can’t win?

There are a number of reasons to do this. He could be setting the stage for a stronger run in 2028 (on the assumption that Trump loses to Biden again in 2024). He could be angling for the vice presidential slot or a prominent cabinet position. He could have thought this was more achievable when he started but now doesn’t know how to quit.

But probably the most important reason he’s doing this is that there’s a very real chance that a 77-year old man facing nearly 100 criminal indictments is not still a candidate by next spring, no matter how popular he is. DeSantis is running not for the current contest, but for the one that happens if Trump can no longer run. Arguably he’s been doing this all along.

With Trump not participating in next week’s debate, we can expect most of the candidates to just be going after DeSantis as the frontrunner of the contest-without-Trump, and DeSantis turning on Ramaswamy, his main rival for that status. Trump will be talked about somewhat, but probably more as a role model than a target.

1. Clinton had a pretty significant lead for a while. A poll in early September 2007 had her up by 31 points over Obama! It’s safe to say her numbers among Democrats back then were ultimately softer than Trump’s are among Republicans today, but it’s not like there wasn’t a huge gap for Obama to overcome that year.