In this world awash with pundits who insist that they are smarter than everyone else and know what's really going on, your mea culpa is a breath of fresh air! This is the first of your posts that I've read, but I will be subscribing now, because your openness and willingness to error-correct in public is a very trustworthy trait. Thank you for that!
Fwiw, I still think the effects of covid-including but not limited to inflation-are u serrated as a reason for gloom. Over a million people died; millions were sick; businesses closed; society has been reorganized in a range of ways. It’s an issue neither party wants to discuss really, but I think it’s a reason people feel like the last years have not been great.
This is a great point. It was bad, people elected Biden and it didn't immediately get better (but it did get better!) and then then Trump didn't go away. I wonder how much was just being tired and worried that we're still dealing with MAGA and it's exhausting. Especially with someone who wasn't up for the fight.
One other point on the parties - Dems helped move Biden out and GOP pushed dissenters out. It wasn't so much the parties unwilling to consolidate, it was how they did so and that is instructive.
‘Biden is too old’ was a very widely held view for quite a while according to polling. Maybe this proves that taking action to directly assuage widely held views is popular? There aren’t a lot of examples of ‘one weird trick to win an election’ because most of the other widely held views Americans have do not have no-long-process solutions. This *might* point toward how much mileage a President could get from finding no-long-process solutions to issues that a big majority of Americans think are a problem. Most of those involve ignoring SCOTUS and setting the Sunday news shows off, so 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️.
I was extremely confident that Kamala would provide an immediate jolt to the ticket and I figured it might be worth listing my reasons to the extent they illuminate:
1) Polling reflected very clearly that Biden was extremely unpopular and the primary concern was his age. He also was polling substantially behind democrats in swing states.
2) Hypothetical matchups made zero sense to me to continue because many cannot visualize what a Presidential candidate would look like in advance. And people's views of Kamala are (and continue to not be) well defined and strong.
3) I had heard many times in DC how Biden was an incredible coalition builder and the truth is both in DC and my home state of Minnesota, it did not match reality at all.
The Biden administration has in fact been infamous for the extent it has ignored coalitions, even ones that were its presumed allies. If you read the tea leaves and start working through the news articles over the post 2022 period, this becomes very obvious. You see his campaign co-chair speaking out against him on immigration policy, the entire party taking different positions than himself on the situation in Israel, and a shockingly large amount of local party chairs expressing deep reservations about the candidate.
His endless attempts to ride out the insurmountable wave to step aside did not surprise me whatsoever. It mirrors what everyone has been experiencing with the administration for some time, and it showed just how hollow his true support base was.
4) Kamala has in fact taken the opposite approach to Biden. Recall that she had a listening tour she did with swing state governors to gain feedback on the campaign, because the campaign itself stopped listening.
5) Biden does in fact actually have cognitive issues and if people are honest with themselves, that is a massive massive detriment to any top of the ticket. Maybe candidates don't matter like they used to, but we don't often get to test this with a candidate that is not there.
The quote that always resounds for me is this one: "Good judgment comes from experience, which comes from bad judgment." I think we all learned a lot this past week, including that, for once at least, we belong to an organized political party - Democrats. As you note, the contrast couldn't be sharper between the D party persuading Biden to withdraw and the R party completely abasing itself to Trump.
I give absolutely no credit to so called Democratic leadership here.
They panicked. There was a concerted effort to push him out. And their plan seemed to be leap frog over Harris and let there be a convention fight.
And weeks of "Democrats in disarray" news stories.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris torpedoed that stupidity and reached out to the delegates.
He endorsed her. The Clintons endorsed her. AOC endorsed her. Endorsements came pouring in. . . civic groups, unions, caucuses.
Before Nancy Pelosi et al could get back from brunch, Harris had spoken to hundreds of delegates and organized fundraising calls. The campaign was off on a roller coaster before the chattering class even knew there was a campaign.
This is why you vote for competent people. Because the two of them had obviously strategized this days in advance.
They're Pelosi folks. George Clooney. Adam Schiff. Pelosi is talking about miniprimaries and an open convention.
Pelosi doesn't endorse her in the first rush.
Today, Joe Biden showed he was negotiating with multiple foreign countries at the same time this was going on. The truth is people have been underestimating Joe Biden for 16 years.
All of this euphoria about Harris could vaporize with a large number of people by choosing a Zionist like Josh Shapiro or and anti-union like Mark Kelly. A dynamic candidate who’s actually accomplished huge success while working with a minuscule majority in Tim Walz would materially benefit the Democratic Party ticket.
I’m in Silver Spring, MD, and while our gas prices have jumped all over (and tend to be higher b/c state tax), our grocery bills are still stubbornly high. And local rents are nuts. I’d vote for a potted plant if the Ds ran one to keep Trump out of office, but I can see why someone not as engaged in political news might look at their shrinking paycheck and vote Trump. “Biden too old” surely doesn’t help.
Disinflation means prices aren't increasing so fast, not that price levels come down, which is deflation which is generally bad news because deflation tends to happen only when the economy is REALLY BAD.
And note that median earning have generally kept up with in inflation so in real terms, inflation hasn't been so bad.
Richard, when the basket of things I buy has increased from ~$80 to ~$120+ since 2019 and my salary hasn’t kept pace, I feel it. And I appreciate that overall inflation has only increased slightly, and that the President — any President — has relatively little to do with grocery prices. But they get blamed. And if Ds try to dodge this with “inflation isn’t that bad,” they will miss a chunk of voters for whom “inflation” is a catch-all term that means “my buying power has diminished, and I’m pissed off.” And they need those voters.
Yes! This is my situation as well. One thing that is not that different between Dems and Repubs is that the leadership - all of whom are wealthy and relatively powerful people - try to convince their constituents of whatever vision of "reality" is convenient for the party instead of acknowledging that they don't know - and can't be bothered to learn - what our reality actually is. You can tell me til the cows come home that the economy is doing great, but if I am struggling just to survive, that is utterly meaningless to me.
The "Biden was just to old" theory seems to have gained a lot of credibility BUT I think should be thought about in the context of pretty much every leader of a developed democracy in the world being quite unpopular (just look at what recently happened to young spry Rishi in the UK). In that sense something structural really seems to be going on outside of just Biden's age even though yes the Nate Silver's of the world who have been yelling about this for a year now have largely been vindicated.
The 2024 POTUS election was effectively two different incumbents who the electorate widely thought had failed, albeit in different ways. Harris now has the chance to be a genuinely popular non-incumbent, which isn’t something that any major party nominee has been since BHO in ‘08.
I’m not arguing that she’s Obama level popular - I’m saying she is the first relatively new presidential nominee since 2008. After 08 you had Romney, Clinton, Trump, and Biden as the major non-Obama major party nominees, all of whom had been in Americans lives for an awfully long time. Harris’ candidacy has that new car smell that no one has had a whiff of in quite some time.
In this world awash with pundits who insist that they are smarter than everyone else and know what's really going on, your mea culpa is a breath of fresh air! This is the first of your posts that I've read, but I will be subscribing now, because your openness and willingness to error-correct in public is a very trustworthy trait. Thank you for that!
You're very kind to say that!
Fwiw, I still think the effects of covid-including but not limited to inflation-are u serrated as a reason for gloom. Over a million people died; millions were sick; businesses closed; society has been reorganized in a range of ways. It’s an issue neither party wants to discuss really, but I think it’s a reason people feel like the last years have not been great.
This is a great point. It was bad, people elected Biden and it didn't immediately get better (but it did get better!) and then then Trump didn't go away. I wonder how much was just being tired and worried that we're still dealing with MAGA and it's exhausting. Especially with someone who wasn't up for the fight.
One other point on the parties - Dems helped move Biden out and GOP pushed dissenters out. It wasn't so much the parties unwilling to consolidate, it was how they did so and that is instructive.
‘Biden is too old’ was a very widely held view for quite a while according to polling. Maybe this proves that taking action to directly assuage widely held views is popular? There aren’t a lot of examples of ‘one weird trick to win an election’ because most of the other widely held views Americans have do not have no-long-process solutions. This *might* point toward how much mileage a President could get from finding no-long-process solutions to issues that a big majority of Americans think are a problem. Most of those involve ignoring SCOTUS and setting the Sunday news shows off, so 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️.
I was extremely confident that Kamala would provide an immediate jolt to the ticket and I figured it might be worth listing my reasons to the extent they illuminate:
1) Polling reflected very clearly that Biden was extremely unpopular and the primary concern was his age. He also was polling substantially behind democrats in swing states.
2) Hypothetical matchups made zero sense to me to continue because many cannot visualize what a Presidential candidate would look like in advance. And people's views of Kamala are (and continue to not be) well defined and strong.
3) I had heard many times in DC how Biden was an incredible coalition builder and the truth is both in DC and my home state of Minnesota, it did not match reality at all.
The Biden administration has in fact been infamous for the extent it has ignored coalitions, even ones that were its presumed allies. If you read the tea leaves and start working through the news articles over the post 2022 period, this becomes very obvious. You see his campaign co-chair speaking out against him on immigration policy, the entire party taking different positions than himself on the situation in Israel, and a shockingly large amount of local party chairs expressing deep reservations about the candidate.
His endless attempts to ride out the insurmountable wave to step aside did not surprise me whatsoever. It mirrors what everyone has been experiencing with the administration for some time, and it showed just how hollow his true support base was.
4) Kamala has in fact taken the opposite approach to Biden. Recall that she had a listening tour she did with swing state governors to gain feedback on the campaign, because the campaign itself stopped listening.
5) Biden does in fact actually have cognitive issues and if people are honest with themselves, that is a massive massive detriment to any top of the ticket. Maybe candidates don't matter like they used to, but we don't often get to test this with a candidate that is not there.
The quote that always resounds for me is this one: "Good judgment comes from experience, which comes from bad judgment." I think we all learned a lot this past week, including that, for once at least, we belong to an organized political party - Democrats. As you note, the contrast couldn't be sharper between the D party persuading Biden to withdraw and the R party completely abasing itself to Trump.
I give absolutely no credit to so called Democratic leadership here.
They panicked. There was a concerted effort to push him out. And their plan seemed to be leap frog over Harris and let there be a convention fight.
And weeks of "Democrats in disarray" news stories.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris torpedoed that stupidity and reached out to the delegates.
He endorsed her. The Clintons endorsed her. AOC endorsed her. Endorsements came pouring in. . . civic groups, unions, caucuses.
Before Nancy Pelosi et al could get back from brunch, Harris had spoken to hundreds of delegates and organized fundraising calls. The campaign was off on a roller coaster before the chattering class even knew there was a campaign.
This is why you vote for competent people. Because the two of them had obviously strategized this days in advance.
This is Biden Harris at their best.
If by "2 people", you meant Pelosi and Harris, that is much more likely.
Frankly, despite your disbelief, it was likely the Dem leadership (led by Pelosi) who orchestrated this.
All the people who kept stabbing him in the back?
They're Pelosi folks. George Clooney. Adam Schiff. Pelosi is talking about miniprimaries and an open convention.
Pelosi doesn't endorse her in the first rush.
Today, Joe Biden showed he was negotiating with multiple foreign countries at the same time this was going on. The truth is people have been underestimating Joe Biden for 16 years.
And he keeps catching them off guard.
All of this euphoria about Harris could vaporize with a large number of people by choosing a Zionist like Josh Shapiro or and anti-union like Mark Kelly. A dynamic candidate who’s actually accomplished huge success while working with a minuscule majority in Tim Walz would materially benefit the Democratic Party ticket.
“Young voters” are soooooo needy.
I’m in Silver Spring, MD, and while our gas prices have jumped all over (and tend to be higher b/c state tax), our grocery bills are still stubbornly high. And local rents are nuts. I’d vote for a potted plant if the Ds ran one to keep Trump out of office, but I can see why someone not as engaged in political news might look at their shrinking paycheck and vote Trump. “Biden too old” surely doesn’t help.
Disinflation means prices aren't increasing so fast, not that price levels come down, which is deflation which is generally bad news because deflation tends to happen only when the economy is REALLY BAD.
And note that median earning have generally kept up with in inflation so in real terms, inflation hasn't been so bad.
Richard, when the basket of things I buy has increased from ~$80 to ~$120+ since 2019 and my salary hasn’t kept pace, I feel it. And I appreciate that overall inflation has only increased slightly, and that the President — any President — has relatively little to do with grocery prices. But they get blamed. And if Ds try to dodge this with “inflation isn’t that bad,” they will miss a chunk of voters for whom “inflation” is a catch-all term that means “my buying power has diminished, and I’m pissed off.” And they need those voters.
Yes! This is my situation as well. One thing that is not that different between Dems and Repubs is that the leadership - all of whom are wealthy and relatively powerful people - try to convince their constituents of whatever vision of "reality" is convenient for the party instead of acknowledging that they don't know - and can't be bothered to learn - what our reality actually is. You can tell me til the cows come home that the economy is doing great, but if I am struggling just to survive, that is utterly meaningless to me.
The "Biden was just to old" theory seems to have gained a lot of credibility BUT I think should be thought about in the context of pretty much every leader of a developed democracy in the world being quite unpopular (just look at what recently happened to young spry Rishi in the UK). In that sense something structural really seems to be going on outside of just Biden's age even though yes the Nate Silver's of the world who have been yelling about this for a year now have largely been vindicated.
Nate Silver works with or for a company that bets on elections which is funded by Peter Theil.
"Biden is too old" storyline should have died after yesterday's hostage swap.
Where, by the way, is Nate Silver's "Trump is too old AND is a traitorous rat" rant?
The 2024 POTUS election was effectively two different incumbents who the electorate widely thought had failed, albeit in different ways. Harris now has the chance to be a genuinely popular non-incumbent, which isn’t something that any major party nominee has been since BHO in ‘08.
I'm skeptical we'll be seeing any 2008 style big wins anytime soon
I’m not arguing that she’s Obama level popular - I’m saying she is the first relatively new presidential nominee since 2008. After 08 you had Romney, Clinton, Trump, and Biden as the major non-Obama major party nominees, all of whom had been in Americans lives for an awfully long time. Harris’ candidacy has that new car smell that no one has had a whiff of in quite some time.