I remember this so well. My first day of work in the Assembly was when Horcher made his deal with Willie Brown. I spent most of the day trying to console senior Republican committee staff who had been fired after thinking they had won the majority.
Thank you for writing this up, but I think you miss two key points:
1) Willie Brown was personally the architect of each of the 3 deals. He was the aggressor, the driver. The Republicans were objects at rest until Willie figured out what each wanted and cut a deal with them. And they all had different motives that had little to do with ideology or policy.
Allen felt belittled by her male Republican colleagues - they treated her like she was dumb and not important. Willie understood what made her tick as a person and made a deal on that basis that allowed her to get back at those colleagues.
Setencich wanted to be famous. He loved the attention and loved being Speaker ev n if it was for a shirt while. He was former basketball star who wanted the limelight. Willie figured out how to make that deal too.
And Horcher hated Brulte for sure, but he also wanted a path out where he would be taken care of. If I remember correctly he was still working for Willie when he was Mayor of San Francisco. I think it was getting paid a big salary to be the titular head of the sanitation department.
So the question isn’t if Republicans in the House want to make such a deal with Jeffries. The question is - does Jeffries and his team have the skill to know individual House Republicans enough to be able to make deals with 5 of them. Are they doing the groundwork now? Are they understanding what makes these individuals tick, or are they just treating them as a monolith or parts of ideological groups?
Willie Brown was able to convince 3 out of 41 Republicans. That is the proportional equivalent of 16 Republicans in the House. Jeffries only needs 5.
So the question is whether Jeffries is a third as good as Willie Brown.
2. And the “congenial era” point makes no sense in this story. Maybe Horcher didn’t know he would get recalled, but the other two did. They saw it happen to Horcher and even knowing they would be recalled they did it anyway. They had full knowledge they would pay. It wasn’t all that congenial then either. Allen retired and left the state. Setencich just faded away. And Horcher - trash man.
This question bears repeating - can Jeffries pull off a one-third Willie Brown?
This is excellent material -- thank you! And no, I didn't mean to suggest that 1995 California was a more congenial environment. There actually were cross-party speaker coalitions in the 1930s and 40s in California, but that honestly wasn't much of an improvement.
Here's an even more recent example on the state level: https://www.wral.com/news/local/story/1089971/ (They had a productive two years, although a couple lawmakers later went to prison.)
This was my senior year at Pomona. And I found out about Horcher voting for Brown in a way that is very college and very pre-social media. I had pulled a near all-nighter to write a paper (this was early December). Getting done, I hit a 24 hour Del Taco for way too late food and they had a newspaper stand where the headline blared "Horcher Votes for Brown."
I remember this so well. My first day of work in the Assembly was when Horcher made his deal with Willie Brown. I spent most of the day trying to console senior Republican committee staff who had been fired after thinking they had won the majority.
Thank you for writing this up, but I think you miss two key points:
1) Willie Brown was personally the architect of each of the 3 deals. He was the aggressor, the driver. The Republicans were objects at rest until Willie figured out what each wanted and cut a deal with them. And they all had different motives that had little to do with ideology or policy.
Allen felt belittled by her male Republican colleagues - they treated her like she was dumb and not important. Willie understood what made her tick as a person and made a deal on that basis that allowed her to get back at those colleagues.
Setencich wanted to be famous. He loved the attention and loved being Speaker ev n if it was for a shirt while. He was former basketball star who wanted the limelight. Willie figured out how to make that deal too.
And Horcher hated Brulte for sure, but he also wanted a path out where he would be taken care of. If I remember correctly he was still working for Willie when he was Mayor of San Francisco. I think it was getting paid a big salary to be the titular head of the sanitation department.
So the question isn’t if Republicans in the House want to make such a deal with Jeffries. The question is - does Jeffries and his team have the skill to know individual House Republicans enough to be able to make deals with 5 of them. Are they doing the groundwork now? Are they understanding what makes these individuals tick, or are they just treating them as a monolith or parts of ideological groups?
Willie Brown was able to convince 3 out of 41 Republicans. That is the proportional equivalent of 16 Republicans in the House. Jeffries only needs 5.
So the question is whether Jeffries is a third as good as Willie Brown.
2. And the “congenial era” point makes no sense in this story. Maybe Horcher didn’t know he would get recalled, but the other two did. They saw it happen to Horcher and even knowing they would be recalled they did it anyway. They had full knowledge they would pay. It wasn’t all that congenial then either. Allen retired and left the state. Setencich just faded away. And Horcher - trash man.
This question bears repeating - can Jeffries pull off a one-third Willie Brown?
This is excellent material -- thank you! And no, I didn't mean to suggest that 1995 California was a more congenial environment. There actually were cross-party speaker coalitions in the 1930s and 40s in California, but that honestly wasn't much of an improvement.
Here's an even more recent example on the state level: https://www.wral.com/news/local/story/1089971/ (They had a productive two years, although a couple lawmakers later went to prison.)
This was my senior year at Pomona. And I found out about Horcher voting for Brown in a way that is very college and very pre-social media. I had pulled a near all-nighter to write a paper (this was early December). Getting done, I hit a 24 hour Del Taco for way too late food and they had a newspaper stand where the headline blared "Horcher Votes for Brown."
Terrific explanation - but depressing. That was then....this is now.