Additionally, many of those very old representatives enjoy advantages a presidential candidate would never have. First, they only need to campaign on a limited geographic region, reducing many of the stresses involved in electioneering. Second, there is a lot of survival bias as the current representatives are mostly several-term incumbe…
Additionally, many of those very old representatives enjoy advantages a presidential candidate would never have. First, they only need to campaign on a limited geographic region, reducing many of the stresses involved in electioneering. Second, there is a lot of survival bias as the current representatives are mostly several-term incumbents that are safer bets for the party and donors. The old candidates who appear to have lost their vigor would probably just not run when that becomes an issue.
Comparing with other countries could work but N is still too small and concentrated (most presidential systems are in Latin America and Africa, culturally skewing the sample somehow). For this question I think we are better off with qualitative assessments and surveys, in that order.
Additionally, many of those very old representatives enjoy advantages a presidential candidate would never have. First, they only need to campaign on a limited geographic region, reducing many of the stresses involved in electioneering. Second, there is a lot of survival bias as the current representatives are mostly several-term incumbents that are safer bets for the party and donors. The old candidates who appear to have lost their vigor would probably just not run when that becomes an issue.
Comparing with other countries could work but N is still too small and concentrated (most presidential systems are in Latin America and Africa, culturally skewing the sample somehow). For this question I think we are better off with qualitative assessments and surveys, in that order.