New life for the Old Guard?

In Colorado, a number of MAGA Republicans went down in flames in their primaries

Former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens (1999-2007), who backed several of yesterday’s GOP primary winners

As I wrote last week, a number of the Republican US House primaries in Colorado looked to be factional contests, pitting “Old Guard” Republicans (backed by leaders from the Reagan-Bush years) against MAGA Republicans (aligned with Trump). Generally, the MAGA wing has been pretty ascendant across the country, but at least in Colorado this week, the Old Guard had a pretty good election night.

Now, there’s an important exception to this and I want to address it first: Yes, Lauren Boebert won in her new district, and she’s definitely MAGA. Her race was unusual for a number of reasons. She gambled that she’d be safer jumping to a new district, with all the carpetbagging accusations that would come with it, than sticking with her old one, where she faced strong opposition both in the primary and the general. She did it to save her own bacon, of course, but in doing so she did her party a real favor; they have a much better chance of keeping control of the 3rd and 4th congressional districts than they did earlier this year. Her gamble paid off.

Boebert at her victory rally

There are dangers in jumping to a new district, of course. But Boebert was by far the best known candidate, she’d raised by far the most money, and she had the endorsement of Donald Trump. Plus, she was running against a crowded field, enabling her to prevail with less than 50% of the vote. (It’s possible that she could have lost if Republicans in the district had rallied behind just one alternative candidate, possibly Jerry Sonnenberg, but that requires both coordination and a desire by local leaders to stop Boebert, and neither of those were present.)

But back to the other House races:

• In CD3 (Boebert’s former district), attorney Jeff Hurd, backed by former Gov. Owens, former Rep. Scott Tipton, and former Rep. Scott McInnis, won. He beat Ron Hanks, who was endorsed by the Colorado Republican Party and its chairman, Dave Williams.

• In CD8, the most competitive district in the state, Gabe Evans, backed by Donald Trump, Bill Owens, Elise Stefanik, and Americans for Prosperity, won. He beat Dr. Janak Joshi, who was endorsed by the Colorado Republican Party and its chairman, Dave Williams.

• In CD5, podcaster Jeff Crank, backed by Americans for Prosperity, Bill Owens, and Hank Brown, won. He beat Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams.

Perhaps you have noticed a theme? Yes, Dave Williams, the embattled state party chair who is facing an organized effort by county-level Republican leaders to depose him, is also proving toxic to Republican primary voters.

This is actually a rather striking trend, given that the GOP, both within the state and elsewhere, has generally moved in the direction of greater and greater MAGA control in recent years. If Williams loses his party post, the party may have an opportunity to pick a different direction under different leadership.

For what it’s worth, something not quite identical but at least rhyming occurred on the Democratic side last night. There were two widely watched Democratic statehouse primaries in Colorado — House Districts 4 and 6, both deeply blue districts in Denver. And in both of those, pretty left-leaning progressive incumbents lost to challengers who were backed by state party leaders. (Fairly strikingly, Governor Jared Polis, who doesn’t often weigh into contested primaries, backed the challenger to state Rep. Elisabeth Epps in HD6.) This is not precisely a center vs. left situation, but in both races, Democrats backed by more mainstream establishment party leaders took down progressive incumbents in districts that are going to stay Democratic regardless of who the nominees are.

I am hesitant to say that the “establishment” had a good night in both parties, since that’s a really fuzzy term. (And if the state’s Republican Party isn’t the Republican establishment, that’s well beyond fuzzy.) But at the very least, if the story in recent decades has been both parties moving toward their extreme positions, this week saw something of a reprieve from that.