MAGA vs. the Old Guard in Colorado

A fight for the GOP's future in four congressional districts

May Republican primary debate in Colorado’s 4th House district (Denver Gazette)

Nomination contests are how a party debates and fights about what it stands for and what direction it wants to go in the future. We usually don’t see that many of them, though; competitive primaries are surprisingly rare. That’s why Colorado’s Republican primary, which concludes on Tuesday, June 25th, is such an important event to watch. Not only are there a surprising number of competitive GOP primaries in House districts — which could affect the balance of power in the US House — but they are pitting the party’s two main factions against each other.

The main factions, in Colorado as elsewhere in the country, are what we might call “the MAGA coalition” — fiercely loyal to Donald Trump, steeped in populist rhetoric, and possessing only modest commitments to American political norms — and “the Old Guard” — something resembling the Reagan-Bush coalition, devoted to lower taxes, reduced economic regulation, and a robust US foreign policy, and skeptical of surrendering party values to Trump. For the most part, the MAGA group is pretty dominant in the party these days, and often beats Old Guard candidates in head-to-head matches. But in Colorado there’s an actual fight.

A key person to be following in all this is Dave Williams, the chair of the Colorado Republican Party. Even if you’re outside Colorado, you may have heard his name recently for a number of reasons:

• He launched a homophobic attack at the beginning of Pride Month using state party e-mail, getting massive pushback from Republicans across the state, some of whom are calling for his resignation.

• He has issued official party endorsements in contested Republican primaries up and down the ballot. It’s not unusual for party leaders to have favorites, but it’s very rare for a party to endorse in a traditional primary.

• Williams is himself a congressional candidate, running in a tight primary race in the 5th district (Colorado Springs) and getting pushback for using party resources for his own campaign.

Williams is very much in the MAGA camp, speaking frequently about the need to defend Donald Trump, and has generally endorsed similar candidates across the state.

Who comprises the Old Guard? That’s a bit vague, but a key person to watch is former Gov. Bill Owens (1999-2007). Owens doesn’t maintain a highly public profile these days but he does issue endorsements in some party primaries, and he’s aligned with quite a few of the Republicans who were ascendant in his day.

Below I briefly profile four of the state’s eight congressional districts with interesting Republican primaries. At least two of these (the 3rd and the 8th) could determine just how competitive the general election is in November, while the other two (the 4th and the 5th) are extremely likely to stay in Republican hands.

Colorado’s congressional districts

The 3rd CD

As you may recall, this was Lauren Boebert’s district. A MAGA member in good standing, she defeated former Rep. Scott Tipton (very much Old Guard) in an upset in the 2020 primary. But she came close to losing her seat in 2022. Even though Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 7 percentage points here, Boebert came within just a few hundred votes of losing the general election. And then there was the Beetlejuice thing. Anyway, she migrated to a more Republican-friendly district for good reason.

This leaves a pretty crowded field behind competing for a suddenly open seat. But there are two main candidates to watch:

• Jeff Hurd, a lawyer and Chamber of Commerce member who is backed by several key Old Guard figures, including Gov. Owens, former Rep. Scott Tipton, and former Rep. Scott McInnis. Hurd was already challenging Boebert before she bailed and was doing pretty well.

• Ron Hanks, a veteran and former state legislator who says that “we are fighting in a life-or-death battle for this country. It is time to rally the troops, circle the wagons, and help President Trump Make America Great Again.” (Yeah that’s pretty MAGA.) Hanks is endorsed by state chair Dave Williams. Also, interestingly, a Democratic dark money group is running some pro-Hanks ads in a maneuver to get what they see as the less electable Republican nominated.

Hurd has more than ten times as much campaign cash as Hanks, but again, this is the district that nominated Boebert. My impression is that if Hurd wins, he wins the general election handily, but this becomes a competitive race if Hanks wins. The Democratic nominee will be Adam Frisch, the one who nearly beat Boebert two years ago.

The 4th CD

The 4th, comprising roughly the eastern third of Colorado, is an open seat, recently vacated by Republican Ken Buck. It is Boebert’s new district. She definitely counts as the MAGA candidate there. My impression is that, despite her being very new to the district an an obvious carpetbagger who only moved there to save her own bacon, she has a number of key advantages that make her likely to win. She has the endorsements of Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and state party chair Dave Williams, she has been by far the most successful fundraiser, and she’s the most famous person in a crowded field. If she were running against just one other candidate who was familiar to the district and had a background in agriculture and ties to the faith community, she’d be in trouble. But the anti-Boebert vote is split quite a few ways.

Now, it’s harder to say just who the Old Guard candidate is, and there probably isn’t just one.

• Rancher Jerry Sonnenberg is endorsed by former US Senators Cory Gardner, Hank Brown, and Wayne Allard, all Old Guarders in good standing.

• Deborah Flora has the backing of the Gazette, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, Allen West, and Gary Sinese(!).

• Mike Lynch is in the statehouse and served as the minority leader there, but stepped down from that role earlier this year when it turned out he was on probation for a DUI. He hasn’t drawn many endorsements but is among those calling for the state party chair to resign.

Republican registration outpaces Democratic registration in this district by nearly 20 points. Whoever wins next week’s Republican primary will be the new House member come January.

The 5th CD

This is traditionally a Republican-leaning district, comprising Colorado Springs and surrounding El Paso County. It’s also one of the clearest cases of MAGA vs. Old Guard in the GOP primary. The two candidates are:

• Podcaster Jeff Crank, active in the Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity (the Koch Brothers organization), is backed by a broad range of Republicans, including former Gov. Bill Owens, US House Speaker Mike Johnson, former US Senator Hank Brown, and the outgoing Representative from this district, Doug Lamborn. This would be Old Guard - Plus.

• Dave Williams (remember him? he’s the state party chair!) has been endorsed by a much more MAGA set of leaders, including Donald Trump, the House Freedom Caucus, Matt Gaetz, and Paul Gosar.

Crank has out-raised Williams modestly, but it’s really hard to call this one. Williams is not particularly well liked within the GOP right now, but Republicans outnumber Democrats in voter registration by 13 percentage points. This is not likely to be competitive in the fall.

The 8th CD

The 8th, just north of Denver, is Colorado’s newest and most competitive congressional district. Democrat Yadira Caraveo won it by less than 2,000 votes in 2022, and it’s at least plausible that a strong Republican showing could win this to the GOP side.

That’s why it’s notable that this is one of the few districts where Republicans have actually coordinated prior to the primary. There are two candidates on the primary ballot:

• Statehouse member Gabe Evans has the backing of both the Old School and a substantial chunk of MAGA, including Donald Trump, Bill Owens, Elise Stefanik, Tom Cotton, the Fraternal Order of Police, Americans for Prosperity, and more.

• Retired physician and former statehouse member Janak Joshi has little money and almost no endorsements, except… the state Republican Party (chaired by Dave Williams).

This one’s a pretty good test of the power of an endorsement by the state party, since pretty much no one else is in Joshi’s corner. And electability is definitely an issue in the November general election, which really could go either way for this district.