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I agree that signs point to a close election. That said, one of the anti-Trump Republican consultants (can't remember whether it was Rick Wilson or Stuart Stevens) pointed out a few weeks ago that some campaigns seem close and then the bottom drops out for one side around October 20. (I think the 1980 election was like that--for much of the campaign Carter wasn't that far behind Reagan.) This consultant thought Trump would end up losing by a substantial margin in the electoral college.

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