My impression is that a lot of this is the increasingly common perception that the vote would make a meaning difference in economic matters. Young voters, for example, overwhelmingly voted for Biden... and are also the voters most concerned about, say, rising housing prices. But why the hell would they vote for Trump then? If one thinks Trump is the "I will bring housing prices down" candidate, I do not know what they have been reading. Social issues have increasingly been centered--especially post Dobbs--and it is my impression that most voters consider economic matters overwhelmingly secondary. Which is frustrating because, even if the economy is strong, affordability issues do persist.
Except that people pretty much always rate the economy as the most important issue. And at least historically, we know that the economy is a performance issue -- people will vote based on how they think the incumbent party is doing.
For sure! But 'the economy' also tracks *a lot*. If someone asked me about "the economy" generally, I would answer more softly than, say, food prices *specifically*. Food is expensive right now, even in the Midwest!
My point is that the relatively importance of social issues has gone up--at least among young, liberal voters. The Supreme Court is an obvious example, given its plummet in popularity (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/21/favorable-views-of-supreme-court-fall-to-historic-low/). I almost never had to talk about SCOTUS across my peer groups: nowadays people almost *always* bring up SCOTUS immediately when I say I do legal philosophy!
My impression is that a lot of this is the increasingly common perception that the vote would make a meaning difference in economic matters. Young voters, for example, overwhelmingly voted for Biden... and are also the voters most concerned about, say, rising housing prices. But why the hell would they vote for Trump then? If one thinks Trump is the "I will bring housing prices down" candidate, I do not know what they have been reading. Social issues have increasingly been centered--especially post Dobbs--and it is my impression that most voters consider economic matters overwhelmingly secondary. Which is frustrating because, even if the economy is strong, affordability issues do persist.
Except that people pretty much always rate the economy as the most important issue. And at least historically, we know that the economy is a performance issue -- people will vote based on how they think the incumbent party is doing.
For sure! But 'the economy' also tracks *a lot*. If someone asked me about "the economy" generally, I would answer more softly than, say, food prices *specifically*. Food is expensive right now, even in the Midwest!
My point is that the relatively importance of social issues has gone up--at least among young, liberal voters. The Supreme Court is an obvious example, given its plummet in popularity (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/21/favorable-views-of-supreme-court-fall-to-historic-low/). I almost never had to talk about SCOTUS across my peer groups: nowadays people almost *always* bring up SCOTUS immediately when I say I do legal philosophy!
I've been wondering if it should be, "It's the Democracy, stupid."?
Well, it certainly should be.