Is it all just vibes?

Talking 2024 politics with Jonah Goldberg

For your listening pleasure, here’s a recent conversation I had with Jonah Goldberg for his podcast The Remnant.

We covered a lot of ground in this chat, but the conversation largely centered on the question of salesmanship versus product in politics. My impression from the past and a pretty substantial body of political science research is that product is more important. For example, the fact that the economy is humming along healthily this year with decent growth and low unemployment and inflation is more important to the 2024 presidential vote than what people think the economy is doing. Incumbent presidents presiding over growth almost invariably win reelection.

But this impression is getting challenged with each new poll showing Biden in substantial trouble with no obvious way to change people’s minds. I’ve written before about the parallels between this election and that of 1992, in which another competent and accomplished administration was failing to convince people that the economy was (truthfully!) recovering. That was a year in which beliefs outranked empirics, and we might be in the middle of another such cycle.

I hope to have more to say on this in the near future. But meanwhile I hope you’ll enjoy the discussion.

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