Why local party leaders backed Trump, in their own words

Rationales evolved over the course of 2023 as Trump's legal troubles mounted

As regular readers here will note, my surveys of county party leaders over the past year and a half found them somewhat cool to him initially but ultimately very supportive. But why did they back him when they did?

In my surveys, after asking chairs which (if any) candidate they were committed to, I offered them a chance to describe, in a sentence or two, just why they were backing that candidate. Much to my surprise, a great many chairs took me up on the offer; roughly 90 percent of those who named a candidate they were supporting were willing to offer an explanation for it.

Just focusing on those who had said they were backing Trump, there were a number of themes that cropped up over and over again. Here I briefly describe those themes and give some examples of what chairs had to say.

First term accomplishments

• “I was impressed with his accomplishments during his first term.”

• “He’s already had a phenomenal record as President and I know he will fight just as hard if not harder if he takes office again!”

Best president

• “He obviously loves this country and was the best president in my lifetime, rivaling even Ronald Reagan.”

• “Best President in the History of the United States!”

Runs government like a business

• “He runs a government like a business.”

• “He is a business man. A successful business man.”

He will save America

• “He is the only candidate who has the ability to Save America as we know it.”

• “He is the only who can clean up the corrupt government.”

The 2020 election was stolen

• “He was out right cheated by government and that fact alone, our government working against him as a candidate and up to and during the election process. That coupled with the massive election interference by Bad actors and Democrat operatives.”

• “I watched him perform in office and while he’s not perfect he’s the best in my lifetime. The 2020 election was stolen and I want him back. Trump 2024.”

He’s being persecuted

• “[He] is being persecuted so that I won’t be but if the democrat liberals succeed against Trump then they will succeed against all of us and the Republic will be lost forever.”

• “He is the one standing in the gap taking the persecutions of the deep state defending us and should be rewarded for it.”

• “I was looking forward to the debates, the Republican Field is mighty,  However, the unfair media, the double standard, the attempts to keep Trump from running... well folks, that told me that he must prevail in this next election.”

• “Anyone who is hated as much as he is, must be a good guy.”

I include more examples of that last theme because, honestly, it fascinates me. Obviously it mimics Trump’s own rhetoric to a large extent, particularly his claims that “they’re not coming after me, they’re coming after you and I’m standing in the way.” But particularly that last one — the idea that anybody a lot of people hate is clearly good — is an amazing bit of motivated reasoning.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the frequency of these different themes varies over the course of 2023. In the chart below, I’ve noted the percent of Trump-supporting respondents who used one of these themes to describe their choice. Some use more than one, so they don’t necessarily sum to 100%. Also, the overall percentage sums drop over time as more people offer “He’s the only candidate left” as a reason.

Frequency of rationales for supporting Trump

The clear trend that stands out is that first-term accomplishment was the main theme in the early waves, but as Trump came under increasing indictments over the course of the year, “He’s being persecuted” rises in prominence. By the end of 2023, those two themes are roughly at parity. That is, for many of these chairs, the best reason to support Trump was that other people oppose him.