When debates are no longer automatic
Why Biden and Trump are debating and what they hope to get out of it
We’ve gotten used to the format and timing of presidential debates as orchestrated by the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) over the past several decades, to the point where we see them as an institution and a public service. Yet there was a time before the CPD when debates were neither expected nor regular, and candidates would agree to them only if they served certain campaign needs. We seem to be back at such a time.
I get into this in a piece at the Los Angeles Times today. As I argue, debates carry risks for candidates, which is why candidates who are far ahead in the polls or unusually bad at debates tend to skip them if they can. Trump’s rejection of the CPD after 2020, and Biden’s willingness to propose new debate terms for 2024 outside of the CPD’s rules, has brought us back to a time when candidates will debate only when both sides think the potential rewards outweigh the risks.
And Biden might have made the better calculation. As I write:
Regardless of what happens in next week’s debate, Biden proposed it for strategic campaign purposes. For one thing, by limiting the debate to just him and Trump, and by going around the commission, Biden may well have avoided Robert Kennedy Jr.’s participation, which could have elevated the independent candidate’s stature and taken votes away from the president. Biden might well be hoping for a repeat of his State of the Union address in March, where he benefited from a strong performance following low expectations and effectively silenced some critics.
Biden’s team also insisted on no in-person audience and a neutral moderator who could shut off the microphone if a candidate goes over his allotted time. As Commission on Presidential Debates co-chair Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr. has said, the president proposed terms highly favorable to him – perhaps more favorable than a commission-brokered debate would have been – and Trump rushed to accept those terms based on his belief that he could crush Biden one-on-one.
I do hope you’ll read the whole thing!