What to expect when you’re electing

Some final thoughts going into Election Day

I first dipped my toe into this election cycle in June of 2021, when I attended the Lincoln Dinner of the Iowa Republican Party and met their guest speaker, Nikki Haley. Whenever this cycle began for you, it is coming to a close soon. (Maybe not Tuesday, specifically, or even this week, but soon.) A few thoughts here on what to expect this week.

I have both an article at MSNBC (3 minutes of your time) and a Power & Flour podcasts episode (30 minutes of your time) describing the vote counting expectations. The short version is that, if this election really is as close as most polls suggest, it may take a few days to know the winner. A handful of swing states, especially Pennsylvania, may not be called for a few days, and we’re likely to see some of the usual shifting in fortunes, with Republicans looking better in the early vote count but Democrats improving as more mail-in ballots are tabulated. Donald Trump will almost certainly use this discrepancy to declare victory on Tuesday night and as the basis for various meritless lawsuits and conspiracy theories.

(Oh and it seems trite to mention it but if Trump wins Harris will concede and promise to work for a smooth transition of power, as nearly everyone who runs for office and loses does.)

What if the polls aren’t that close? So, you may have noticed that Des Moines Register poll showing Harris up by 4 over Trump in Iowa. The pollster there, Ann Selzer, is considered one of the best in the country. That doesn’t mean the poll is right, of course — it’s by definition an outlier. But it’s notable that she does not do the fancy “weighting on recall of 2020” stuff that a lot of other pollsters have done to avoid 2016 and 2020-type errors. Those weights might be the right approach. But if they’re not, Selzer might be capturing what is really going on, including a considerable surge of women voters in a Dobbs backlash (and perhaps a specific backlash to Iowa’s recent 6-week abortion ban). For what it’s worth, while this poll is an outlier, it’s pretty consistent with her September Iowa poll. We’ll know soon whether she’s onto something. I rather doubt Trump is in any real danger of losing Iowa, but if it’s even close there, that suggests a very bad Tuesday for him.

So what comes after that? My guess is that it will take networks a few days to call the race, but if Harris wins, that’s when the next stage of the Trump campaign kicks in. This NYT Daily podcast episode is sobering and very important, making the point that there are state and county level election officials, whose job it is to review and certify election results, who will probably not certify if Donald Trump loses. I’ve heard Democrats saying that Harris needs a large victory to keep the election deniers from denying her election, but that’s a false hope — Trump has never conceded a loss and won’t this time, no matter how big it is. And as long as he’s claiming fraud, so will a lot of other people who got elected to these positions.

That doesn’t mean they have the ability to derail Harris’ presidency, but they can drag this process out, make the transition period even more contentious, give a forum for conspiratorial and violent voices to weigh in, and otherwise just make the transition more painful, costly, and bloody for the nation. I’m hoping it isn’t the case, but vote certification and the larger circumstances surrounding it stands a chance of being the story over the next month or two.

If you’re looking for something to do other than stare at poll numbers,

Kevin M. Kruse

has a number of excellent suggestions, including sending food and water to people waiting to vote, joining a ballot curing operation, and more. I also recommend baking.

Beyond that, this is my chance to express some democratic gratitude. Whether you've been campaigning, helping people vote, raising money, conducting and interpreting polls, explaining and contextualizing events, running for office, or anything else election-related, thank you for doing the work of democracy this year. See you on the other side.