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Alan Neff's avatar

Having spent (squandered?) a lot of time recently looking at the same approval/disapproval data, I acknowledge that Trump is not at Nixon's low. Trump might, however, asymptotically approach it, even accounting for the political-tribal polarization.

Per Gallup, Nixon was at or near 24% when he left office. (Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/12676/questions-answers-editor-chief.aspx#:~:text=Yes.,years%20since%20he%20left%20office) Here's G. Elliot Morris - who is relentlessly informative and on whom we both apparently rely for such information - speculating in December that Trump's approval could fall into the mid-low 30s. (Source: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-the-floor-could-fall-out-for)

Tribal partisanship probably will keep Trump above the Nixon 20s, but ICE, as Morris says (see his January data-analysis columns), could be come a 70-30 disapproval issue for him. ICE, plus the economy/inflation/jobs, and Trump's other disliked initiatives (e.g., Greenland) could move him toward that lower bound of ~30%.

I think - perhaps too hopefully - that the continuous and manifest chaos, incompetence, corruption, cruelty, and vindictive approach to his opponents will get him closer to that 30%. The increasing unease Congressional Rs are displaying (e.g., distancing themselves from Trump on healthcare, Epstein, Greenland and Jerome Powell, and declining to seek re-election in 2026) indicates to me that's what the Rs in Congress think is happening.

Wren C. de la O's avatar

Yup, the point made about the zombie American electorate that allegedly still gives approval ratings to the orange fascist, is creepy as all get out. I wonder what's in their water?

Sem Sath's avatar

Unfortunately, probably lead.

Bob Fertik's avatar

Trump's approval rating stays at 40% only because the stock market keeps rising. His approval dropped quickly after "Liberation Day" sent stocks tumbling, but recovered as he lifted the most harmful tariffs (TACO). If the markets fall significantly in the weeks ahead, so will Trump's approval.

John Scabies's avatar

IDK man, Nixon's second term is kind of a black swan situation

Nik Ford, Ph.D.'s avatar

Nixon lowest— back when Republicans still had integrity.

Nik Ford, Ph.D.'s avatar

There’s something there to study, not by me I’m not an Americanist. Or maybe it’s already been done and I missed it?

John Scabies's avatar

Yes a very sophisticated study known as "looking at Trump's approval rating among Republicans, doing the same for Nixon, and then comparing the two numbers".

"Americanist" isn't a real word