"Trump voters did/didn't vote for *this*" is neither accurate nor useful

Understanding just how people cast a vote and what they're on the hook for

I’ve seen a lot of versions of the above message across media and social media in recent weeks, largely stemming from articles like this. And it seems to be sparking all sorts of arguments about whether Trump voters did or did not “vote for this.” I find this framing to be both unhelpful and inaccurate.

Probably the main argument that Trump voters were on board with what is going on today is that the Trump campaign was about as overt as possible about deportations being central to his agenda. Republican National Convention delegates last summer held party-produced “Mass Deportation Now” signs, and this appeared on national TV and got widespread attention. Trump made numerous promises to conduct widespread deportations throughout the campaign. The first two planks in the Republican National Committee’s 2024 platform were to “seal the border” and “carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.”

Republican National Convention, July 2024

Of course, we know most voters don’t pay close attention to campaigns, convention speeches, or party platforms. They could have missed this information. But it was about as well advertised as any campaign promise could be. The information wasn’t hidden.

But there are a number of problems with simply saying, These voters knew or should have known, therefore they’re on the hook. For one thing, “mass deportation now” can mean a lot of different things to different people. Some would hear that as a committed effort to remove migrants who are gang members or law breakers. Others would hear that as an effort to remove millions of migrants, even those following the laws and paying taxes and central to many American communities. Trump himself was inconsistent on this matter.

In general, voters will view political messages through partisan lenses. They will interpret these promises in a way that is consistent with their existing world view. Those already inclined to like Trump heard this argument as He will remove the people I don’t think should be here. Those disposed against Trump heard it as He will deport innocent people and disrupt millions of lives.

Yet another problem with this argument, as G. Elliot Morris notes, is that the polling evidence shows that many Trump voters truly do not approve of Trump’s actions on deportation.

But the bigger problem is that we know this is not how people decide for whom to vote. Most of us either call ourselves partisans or vote like them. We tend to vote very loyally for one party throughout our lives. And generally, we will rationalize campaign speeches and promises in a way that supports the vote we were going to cast anyway. Why would someone vote Republican today? There’s a good chance it’s because they’ve always voted Republican, because Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush was president when they were a teenager and they liked him, and especially because their parents were Republicans. Do they agree with everything Trump says or does? Almost certainly not. But they think he’ll fight for the stuff they like, and they think the stuff they don’t like is either bluster or not all that important, or at any rate far better than anything the Democrats would do.

And those of us who are not partisans? Well, those folks are almost certainly not paying close enough attention to politics to have seen a convention speech or have listened to a debate. And they’re probably using some very simple heuristics to make a decision: Is the economy working well for me? Am I able to afford what I need? Am I generally happy with the way things are going? If the answers to these questions are yes, they probably voted for Kamala Harris, who represented the incumbent party. If not, they were angry with the Biden administration and expressed that they only real way they could in our two-party system — by voting for the other party.

Some swing voters were no doubt open to arguments that immigrants were the sources of their problems. Trump taking a strong (even overly-strong or absurdly-strong) stance against migrants was a signal that he took the problem seriously and would do something about it.

We could view the “I didn’t vote for this” statements as a way of trying to avoid blame. Conversely, it could also be a signal that they are open to working with Democrats to stop this part of Trump’s agenda, and that deportations are a vulnerability for Trump.

But more generally, the question of whether a voter is on the hook for everything their preferred candidate does is just not helpful. Whether you voted for Trump because of or despite his deportation promises is irrelevant; the vote looks and counts the same. Despite the amount of money and attention devoted to presidential elections, the vast majority of us made our decisions about that election with astonishingly little effort, and most of us made that decision years ago. The blame/exoneration framework just really isn’t appropriate to describing how people make voting devisions or how they behave.