Neither bandwagoning nor coordination

Governors back two different alternatives to the frontrunner

Nikki Haley and John Sununu (CNN)

This seems like a pretty unique situation:

There is a very clear frontrunner in the Republican presidential nomination contest, and yet, with a month to go before the voting begins:

• Iowa’s Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is backing Ron DeSantis

• New Hampshire’s Republican Governor Chris Sununu is backing Nikki Haley

Two quick thoughts here:

First, this is not bandwagoning! These governors know full well where their party is heading, but they have decided to oppose Donald Trump. Is their voice, along with that of a few other key figures, enough to turn the tide, or at least help their chosen candidate do better than expected if not win? Unlikely, but not impossible.

Second, this is not coordination! If you’re going to stop a popular candidate from winning, that requires coordination upon an alternative. Republicans learned that the hard way in 2016 when a lot of them warned people not to vote for Trump and instead advised them to vote for [any one of these 16 other lovely people].

The biggest effect these endorsements could likely have is causing Trump to under-perform in the first two contests, which would be followed by a very fuzzy signal from the confusing Nevada contest. And then there’s nothing definitive until the South Carolina primary in late February. Potentially, this causes some Republicans to rethink Trump’s inevitability and to maybe consider one of the alternatives.

I’m skeptical we’ll see that much of an effect. But this is an unusual situation, and if you’re going to see a front-runner’s inevitability checked, this is how that happens.