Iowa just got a lot more competitive
Iowa just got a lot more competitive
The Vander Plaats and Reynolds endorsements of DeSantis are a big deal
Nationally, the Republican presidential nomination contest has been stuck in cement for months, with former President Donald Trump holding a basically insurmountable lead. But national measures of state nomination contests can be misleading. The Iowa caucuses — the first contest — are looking more competitive, and two new endorsements just made them more so.
Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats announced yesterday that he was endorsing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for president. Just two weeks ago, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds also announced her endorsement of DeSantis.
When I have spent time in Iowa interviewing local Republican activists and leaders, I often ask whose endorsements are considered important in the run up to the caucuses. Most people I’ve spoken to have assumed that Trump has had this contest in the bag for some time, and that endorsements just don’t move very many caucus votes anymore, if they ever did. But the two names that have come up more than any other as potentially influential endorsers? Reynolds and Vander Plaats, the latter probably more so. Reynolds’ influence derives from her office, while Vander Plaats’ derives from his substantial and longstanding pull within the state’s evangelical Christian community.
Vander Plaats and his Family Leader organization have a pretty legendary track record in the Iowa caucuses. In the last three competitive Republican caucuses, he backed three relatively long shot candidates: Mike Huckabee (2008), Rick Santorum (2012), and Ted Cruz (2016). All three of those candidates ended up winning the contest. The Santorum victory was the most interesting — Santorum was at a measly 7 percent in the polls and in sixth place when Vander Plaats backed him in late December of 2011. His support skyrocketed in the few weeks that followed and he went on to very narrowly defeat Mitt Romney on caucus night.
Also of note: Vander Plaats led a statewide pushback on the Iowa Supreme Court’s legalization of same-sex marriage in 2009. This campaign led to the ouster of three of the state’s justices the next year.
Evangelical Christian groups are particularly powerful in the Iowa Republican Party, and Vander Plaats is particularly powerful among evangelical Christians. To understand his perspective, it’s helpful to review a fascinating interview he gave to Astead Herndon at the New York Times’ Run-Up podcast this past summer.
As Vander Plaats noted in that interview, evangelical Christians mostly, and somewhat reluctantly, rallied to Trump in the 2016 general election because he was the alternative to Hillary Clinton. But his actions in office — especially appointing the three Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade — reassured them that he was on their side, regardless of his own personal behavior, beliefs, or knowledge of Scripture.
But he’s been willing to criticize Trump for what he sees as too permissive stances on state abortion laws, for personal and moral failings, and more. He’s said that the mounting criminal charges against Trump, regardless of their merits, make him less electable: “We believe the former President’s hurdles are so significant, that most likely, he gives the Democrats the best opportunity to win in 2024. So we believe we’re doing our base a great service by trying to say who would be a good alternative to the former President.”
Now, as any review of Vander Plaats’ endorsement record makes clear, he’s good at picking winners in the Iowa caucuses who do not go on to win the nomination. But, he argues, the point of Iowa is not necessarily to pick winners, but to narrow the field. And someone other than Trump winning in Iowa opens up the other state contests:
You win Iowa, that doesn’t mean you win the nomination. You win Iowa, you’re in the hunt now. And that’s why more than ever, in 2024, you’re seeing all these candidates understand how important Iowa is. Because they believe if Trump wins Iowa and wins it big, if he steamrolls it, I don’t think you’re stopping [him]. I think it’s over. If you stop him here, now, you’re going to give America a real choice about where do you want to go.
My own impression (drawn in no small part from polling work by our Iowa State University partners) is that Trump is still very likely to win the caucuses. But if that doesn’t happen, it’s because of these two very big endorsements this month.