How surprised should we be by Haley backing Trump?

On the normalization and abnormalization of GOP nomination politics

Nikki Haley has announced that she will be voting for Donald Trump in November. Is this a surprising about face?

Although there’s a lot of (justifiable!) criticism of the media for “normalizing” Trump, I feel this is an area where things have been “abnormalized.” A couple of things here are actually pretty typical. Specifically, it’s perfectly normal for:

• primary candidates to say very damning things about each other, followed by the losers endorsing the winner prior to the convention. Nearly every 2020 Democratic candidate ended up endorsing Joe Biden. Bernie Sanders eventually endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016.

• primary candidates who have already lost to continue to pull 15-20% or so in post-clinch primaries. Haley continuing to win some primary votes does not signal a major rift in the party.

All that said, it’s worth reviewing the nature of the disagreements between the two. Here’s CBS with the receipts back in February:

“Many of the same politicians who now publicly embrace Trump privately dread him,” [Haley] said. “They know what a disaster he’s been and will continue to be for our party. They’re just too afraid to say it out loud. Well, I’m not afraid to say the hard truths out loud.”

Haley escalated her attacks on the former president, saying she has “no fear of Trump’s retribution,” isn't jockeying to be his vice president and that her “political future is of zero concern.” 

“He’s gotten more unstable and unhinged. He spends more time in courtrooms than he does on the campaign trail. He refuses to debate. He’s completely distracted, and everything is about him. He’s so obsessed with his own demons from the past. He can’t focus on delivering a future Americans deserve,” Haley said. 

“He’s taking out his anger on others. He’s getting meaner and more offensive by the day. He’s trying to bully me and anyone who supports me. He says they’ll be barred from MAGA permanently. That’s not the way you win elections,” she added. 

Trump, meanwhile, regularly called her “birdbrain,” and his campaign described her as a “wailing loser hell-bent on an alternative reality.” His supporters threatened her life. What’s more, Trump vowed that Haley and anyone who contributed to her campaign would be excommunicated from the MAGA movement.

That’s a good deal more invective and promises of retribution than we usually see in intraparty contests, to be clear.

So why is Haley backing him now? I doubt there’s any sort of deal that’s been worked out. Trump doesn’t need her support. She’s backing him for the same reason virtually every other public figure in the party does: she wants to still have a career as a Republican, whether in the next Trump administration or otherwise, and she’s seen the very visible examples of what happens to those who fail to bend the knee. And despite all the concerns she’s raised about Trump, she likely still sees another term by him as better than another by Biden.

Just one point here about what Haley said this week:

Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me and continue to support me, and not assume that they’re just going to be with him. And I genuinely hope he does that.

This strikes me as astonishingly silly. Why would Trump be smart to reach out to Haley and her supporters? That requires effort, and she just demonstrated that he would have her vote despite him exerting no effort at all. Haley is repeating a pattern that we have seen time and again from nearly all Republican officials, that despite some modest protestations, there is quite literally nothing he can do that will keep them from supporting him over a Democrat.

There’s been some legitimate debate in recent years about Donald Trump’s business acumen. But he’s definitely smart enough not to pay for something he already has.