California Democrats got lucky this time
The top-two system could have created chaos for a party that isn't always great at coordinating
As of this writing, the California governor’s race appears to be going to a November runoff between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton. As in the 2020 presidential race, Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer ran a spirited campaign but came up short, and will likely Back Dat Azz Up into obscurity once again. As such, this looks like a “normal” primary, producing a nominee for each major party that the electorate can weigh in on. But California’s top-two system is still problematic here, and very easily could have produced a perverse and chaotic outcome for the state.
Definitely check out Jonathan Bernstein’s piece roasting the top-two system — I largely agree with what he says. But I want to stress a bit on party coordination, something notably lacking on the Democratic side in this contest.
Top-two primary elections are not “primaries” in any sense except that they come first. In common usage, a primary is a way for a party to decide on a nominee by turning to the party’s voters. California’s system does not do that. Rather, it is a June election among all the candidates, with the two top vote-getters going to a runoff election in November, even if they’re from the same party.
Usually, this looks similar to what you’d get in a more conventional primary election system, with a Democrat and a Republican going to the runoff. But once in a while, you get a Democrat-Democrat or a Republican-Republican runoff. Eric McGhee and Mark Baldassare at the Public Policy Institute of California ran the numbers and found that at least 18 state legislative or congressional contests have ended up in a same-party runoff each election cycle since the top-two system was adopted. (Such races have helped to modestly reduce polarization in the state legislature.) Usually that doesn’t matter much for representation purposes; it’s the same-party runoff in a district dominated by that party.
However, as McGhee and Baldassare note, there have been eight same-party runoffs in districts that lean toward the other party, and seven of those were two Republicans facing off in a Democratic-leaning district. That is, the top-two system created multiple situations where a Republican ended up representing a Democratic-majority district. (That doesn’t have an enormous impact in a state where Democrats have such large majorities, but imagine that happening in a statewide office like governor.)
There’s nothing particularly Republican-leaning in the design of the top-two system. Rather, that party has been somewhat more successful than Democrats in coordinating behind one candidate in those circumstances where it really matters (like if you could lose control of a district that favors your party because your party has too many candidates running).
That’s the area where the top-two system gets really dangerous for a party and for representation in general. So how can a party minimize the risks of splitting the vote and losing the district?
